Clacton by-election: Turnout
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be less than 10,000?<1¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 10,000-20,000?<1¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 20,000-30,000?62¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 30,000-40,000?34¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 40,000-50,000?2¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be between 50,000-60,000?<1¢
- Will the number of votes cast in the 2026 Clacton by-election be at least 60,000?<1¢
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held on August 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total vote count in the 2026 Clacton by-election, including rejected ballots. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the election aren’t known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
The Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation and held on 13 August 2026, features a record 34 candidates after Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats, and Greens opted not to stand. With the main parties absent, traders price the 20k–30k turnout band highest, reflecting expectations of subdued voter engagement in a contest dominated by independents and novelty candidates such as Count Binface. An electorate of roughly 78,000 and the mid-August timing further dampen participation, as does the absence of a competitive race between established parties. Historical precedent from the 2024 general election (turnout near 58%) and recent constituency polling both point to a significantly lower figure this time, supporting the market’s emphasis on the sub-40k ranges while leaving limited scope for higher turnout absent last-minute mobilization.