Clacton by-election: Nigel Farage Vote %
- Will Nigel Farage win less than 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?<1¢
- Will Nigel Farage win 40–50% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?<1¢
- Will Nigel Farage win 50–60% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?<1¢
- Will Nigel Farage win 60–70% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?14¢
- Will Nigel Farage win 70–80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?51¢
- Will Nigel Farage win at least 80% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?38¢
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Nigel Farage wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Farage triggered the Clacton by-election by resigning his Reform UK seat in early July 2026 to seek a fresh mandate amid a parliamentary investigation into undeclared donations. Major parties have declined to field candidates, leaving a crowded field of 34 entrants dominated by independents and fringe figures such as Count Binface. Recent local polling shows Farage on roughly 73 percent, well ahead of any rival but short of an 80 percent threshold. This positioning, combined with uncertainty over turnout and how fringe votes will split, keeps the 70–80 percent and 80 percent-plus brackets nearly even in trader pricing. Resolution hinges on the August 13 count, with any late swing in participation or unexpected consolidation among minor candidates able to shift the final band.