Clacton by-election: Margin of Victory
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by 60% or more?49¢
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 40% and 60%?38¢
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by between 20% and 40%?8¢
- Will Nigel Farage win the 2026 Clacton by-election by less than 20%?2¢
- Will Count Binface win the 2026 Clacton by-election by any margin?<1¢
- Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?<1¢
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the specified election. For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two or more candidates tie for the most valid votes in this election, and the tie is between two candidates listed, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the candidate whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order. If the tie is between a listed candidate and an unlisted candidate, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the listed candidate. If the tie is between two or more unlisted candidates, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/). If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Nigel Farage's resignation as MP for Clacton in early July 2026, which triggered the by-election, has positioned him as the clear frontrunner in a contest featuring a record 34 candidates but minimal opposition from major parties. A late-July Survation constituency poll showed him on 73% against novelty challenger Count Binface on 20%, reflecting Reform UK's entrenched local support in the strongly pro-Brexit Essex seat and the absence of Labour, Conservative, or Liberal Democrat contenders. Traders have priced in a decisive outcome, with the 60%+ margin band leading at 55.5%, as the fragmented field and low-profile challengers reduce the risk of a tighter race. The election occurs today, so final vote shares will determine resolution.