Clacton by-election: Count Binface Vote %
- Will Count Binface win less than 10% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?16¢
- Will Count Binface win 10–20% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?66¢
- Will Count Binface win 20–30% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?18¢
- Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?3¢
- Will Count Binface win at least 40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?<1¢
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes Count Binface wins in the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not compete or the results of the specified election are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
A recent Survation constituency poll showing Count Binface at around 20% has anchored trader expectations for the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, triggered by Nigel Farage’s resignation. This positions the 10–20% band as the consensus outcome, reflecting the novelty candidate’s elevated profile from extensive media coverage, a crowded 34-candidate field, and the absence of major-party challengers. Historical results for Binface in prior contests typically yield under 1%, yet the current campaign’s focus on protest voting and anti-incumbent sentiment has lifted projected support without evidence it will exceed the polled level. The lower-probability 20–30% band accounts for upside from turnout or late swings, while sub-10% remains a residual possibility if protest momentum fades on polling day.