- Will Régis Gaudreault win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?3¢
- Will Caroline Dubé win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?36¢
- Will Daniel Gobeil win the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election?56¢
A by-election for the Canadian federal electoral district of Chicoutimi—Le Fjord is currently scheduled to be held on August 31, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Elections Canada (https://www.elections.ca/).
The tight three-way contest in the Chicoutimi—Le Fjord by-election stems from the riding’s recent history of narrow margins among the Liberal, Bloc Québécois, and Conservative parties, with the 2025 results separating the top three by just three points. Daniel Gobeil’s nomination as the Liberal candidate, backed by his agricultural leadership role, has drawn modest trader preference at 56.5 percent, while Caroline Dubé’s Bloc candidacy and Régis Gaudreault’s Conservative bid remain closely matched. Advance voting opened on August 21 ahead of the August 31 election date, set after Richard Martel’s Senate appointment created the vacancy. Limited recent polling shows a statistical tie, and the short campaign window has left little room for decisive shifts in this francophone Quebec riding where voter preferences often fragment across parties.