- ChatGPT Outage by August 31, 2026?28¢
- ChatGPT Outage by September 30, 2026?87¢
- ChatGPT Outage by September 15, 2026?81¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's ChatGPT experiences any incident classified as 'Partial/Full Outage' between market creation and the specified calendar day (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. ChatGPT will be considered to have experienced a qualifying incident on the specified day if the OpenAI Status Page for ChatGPT (status.openai.com) displays that day’s status box as a shade of red indicating Partial/Full Outage once it is finalized. (green indicates "No incidents", yellow indicates "Degraded performance"). A day will be considered finalized once the following day’s status box is added on the Status Page. Only incidents listing ChatGPT under 'Affected components' will be considered. Incidents labeled as affecting 'APIs,' 'Codex,' 'FedRamp,' or 'Ads Platform,' but not ChatGPT, will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. This market will remain open until the specified day’s status box is finalized and all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. Revisions that change an incident’s impact classification to or from 'Partial/Full Outage' will be considered if the revision is published before the specified day’s status box is finalized or before all incidents that began during the specified date have been resolved. This market will resolve once the specified day’s status box is finalized, provided no incident that began during the specified date is ongoing. In case of an ongoing incident the market will remain open until the incident is marked as “Resolved” and all relevant data has been released. If the incident in question is not resolved or all relevant data has not been released by the end of the seventh day after the specified date, this market will resolve based on the data available at that time. The primary resolution source for this market will be official system status information published by OpenAI on status.openai.com; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
OpenAI's ChatGPT platform, serving hundreds of millions of weekly users with large language models, has experienced multiple minor outages in August 2026 alone, including elevated error rates on August 27 affecting ChatGPT Work and Workspace Agents for roughly four hours. These incidents stem from high demand on conversation handling, API routing, and agent features, often resolved quickly via mitigations but highlighting scaling pressures amid rapid model updates like GPT-5 variants. Frequent short disruptions—averaging nearly two dozen per month—reflect the challenges of maintaining reliability for a platform with global usage spikes, while competitive AI advancements and upcoming feature expansions could intensify load and influence outage probabilities. Traders should monitor OpenAI's status page for patterns tied to traffic peaks or releases.