- Will the Republican Party win the CA-36 House seat?5¢
- Will the Democratic Party win the CA-36 House seat?95¢
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-36 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026. A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ted Lieu's long incumbency and the district's deep Democratic lean drive the overwhelming market consensus favoring the party nominee at 95 percent. California’s 36th encompasses heavily Democratic coastal Los Angeles territory with a partisan voting index exceeding D+20, producing consistent double-digit margins in recent cycles. The June 2026 primary confirmed this pattern, advancing Lieu against Republican Houston Brignano for the November general. Forecasters rate the seat Solid or Safe Democratic. A late-breaking scandal, incumbent health crisis, or unprecedented national Republican wave could narrow the gap, though structural barriers and historical turnout patterns limit realistic shifts before election day.