- Will Aisha Wahab win the CA-14 special election?87¢
- Will Wendy Huang win the CA-14 special election?<1¢
- Will Matt Ortega win the CA-14 special election?<1¢
- Will Victor Aguilar Jr. win the CA-14 special election?<1¢
- Will Melissa Hernandez win the CA-14 special election?11¢
- Will Carin Elam win the CA-14 special election?<1¢
- Will Rakhi Israni Singh win the CA-14 special election?<1¢
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Aisha Wahab holds an overwhelming lead in trader consensus for the CA-14 special election due to her decisive primary performance, where she captured roughly 38-43% of the vote and finished more than 20 points ahead of Melissa Hernandez in both the June special primary and the regular primary. The heavily Democratic Bay Area district ensures the winner will be one of the two finalists who advanced to the August 18 runoff. Wahab’s consistent edge in voter support has outweighed Hernandez’s fundraising advantage, reinforcing expectations that the state senator will prevail in the special general. The remaining candidates received negligible primary votes and hold no realistic path to victory. Markets price in limited uncertainty from the just-completed vote count, with only late procedural or certification issues capable of altering the outcome.