Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in São Paulo
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?82¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?15¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from São Paulo?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in São Paulo, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from São Paulo. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in São Paulo. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding position in trader pricing for first place in São Paulo's first-round vote due to the state's longstanding right-leaning electorate and his role as the Liberal Party nominee backed by the Bolsonaro family network. National polls show him trailing President Lula overall, yet São Paulo's urban and suburban voters have consistently favored conservative candidates in recent cycles, boosting expectations for a strong regional performance. Campaign activities launched in mid-August, with Flávio drawing crowds in traditional strongholds while Lula focused on nearby ABC Paulista areas, underscoring the competitive dynamic. Other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register minimal support in available surveys, limiting their ability to challenge the frontrunners in this key battleground state ahead of the October vote.