Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Rondônia
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?96¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Rondônia?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Rondônia, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Rondônia. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Rondônia. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Rondônia’s first-round presidential voting intentions due to entrenched conservative support in the northern state for the PL party and the Bolsonaro family brand. A July 2026 Real Time Big Data survey showed him at 58 percent locally, more than 30 points ahead of Lula, consistent with the state’s right-leaning electorate and recent campaign events featuring the senator. Other declared or potential candidates remain fragmented with minimal organized backing in the region. While national polls show a tighter Lula-Flavio contest, Rondônia-specific dynamics create substantial barriers to challengers. Late shifts in turnout among rural or evangelical voters, or an unexpected national surge by a center-right alternative, represent the main scenarios that could narrow the gap before the October 4 first round.