Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Minas Gerais
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?16¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?75¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Minas Gerais, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Minas Gerais. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Minas Gerais. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula holds the strongest position among candidates for first place in Minas Gerais during the October 4 first-round vote, consistent with national polling averages placing him in the low-to-mid 40s percent range ahead of Flávio Bolsonaro in the mid-30s. Incumbent advantages, including recent expansions of debt-relief programs and temporary fuel subsidies, have supported his standing in the state. The right remains fragmented, with Bolsonaro carrying the Liberal Party nomination while other contenders such as Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos register only single-digit national support and even lower implied probabilities for topping Minas Gerais. Official campaign activity began in mid-August, leaving limited time for major shifts before voting, though the state's large electorate and historical swings keep outcomes sensitive to turnout patterns among key voting blocs.