Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso do Sul
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?2¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?92¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?3¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso do Sul?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso do Sul. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso do Sul. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flávio Bolsonaro maintains a commanding lead in trader consensus for first place in Mato Grosso do Sul during the October 2026 first round, driven by consistent local polling advantages of roughly 8–10 points over Lula and endorsements from key state figures including Governor Eduardo Riedel. The Liberal Party candidate benefits from the region's conservative electorate, agricultural interests, and established family political brand, reinforced by recent party conventions and alliances that consolidated center-right support ahead of candidacy registration deadlines. Scenarios that could narrow this margin include national-level developments such as further polling shifts in the state, late campaign events, or changes in local alliances that boost competing candidates' turnout in the final weeks before the vote.