Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 1st Place in Mato Grosso
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Flavio Bolsonaro win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?89¢
- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?5¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Mato Grosso?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Mato Grosso, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Mato Grosso. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Mato Grosso. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Flavio Bolsonaro holds a commanding position in Mato Grosso polling for the October 4 first round, reflecting the state's conservative electorate and alignment with Liberal Party (PL) messaging on agriculture, security, and federalism. Recent state-specific surveys, including Real Time Big Data data from mid-August, place him well ahead of Lula and other contenders in first-round preferences, consistent with broader right-wing strength in the region. National factors such as Jair Bolsonaro's endorsement, the PL convention nomination, and the selection of running mate Alfredo Gaspar have reinforced family-brand continuity without major new local disruptions. Other candidates, including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos, register minimal support in Mato Grosso samples. Trader consensus on state-level outcomes incorporates these regional dynamics alongside the two-round electoral system.