- Will Hertz Dias win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?3¢
- Will Lula win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?68¢
- Will Pablo Marçal win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?3¢
- Will Renan Santos win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Ronaldo Caiado win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa Pimenta win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Samara win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Veterinário Wilson Grassi win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Zema win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Clariana Barao win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Edmilson Costa win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
- Will Escritor Augusto Cury win the most votes in the next Brazil presidential election from Amapá?<1¢
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Amapá, Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Amapá. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Amapá. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
Lula maintains a clear lead in Amapá first-round voting intentions according to recent state-specific polling, driven by his incumbency advantages, established support among northern voters, and active campaign engagement including Petrobras-related events in the state. Flávio Bolsonaro trails as the main challenger from the PL, with polls showing him competitive nationally but narrower in Amapá, where Lula has historically performed strongly. The first-round contest on October 4 remains the focus amid a crowded field that includes Ronaldo Caiado, Renan Santos, Romeu Zema, and Augusto Cury, none of whom register significant shares in available surveys. Traders price Lula's position as the frontrunner in the state while assigning lower probabilities to alternatives, reflecting the limited movement in recent data ahead of the official campaign window that opened in mid-August.