- Will AfD win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?<1¢
- Will AfD win 23-25 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?2¢
- Will AfD win 35 or more seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?44¢
- Will AfD win 20-22 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?5¢
- Will AfD win 26-28 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?7¢
- Will AfD win 29-31 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?23¢
- Will AfD win 32-34 seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?26¢
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats won by the AfD party in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election. This market will resolve according to the total number of seats officially attributed to the specified party as a result of the election. This includes all seats attributed to that party, regardless of whether they are won directly or allocated through party lists, compensatory mechanisms, or any other component of the applicable electoral system. If the specified party contests the election as part of a joint candidate list with one or more parties, all seats won by the joint candidate list will be counted. If the specified party merges with another party prior to the election, all seats won by the resultant merged party, or any joint candidate list through which it contests the election, will be counted. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the specified party in this election. This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
Recent polling in Berlin shows the AfD at 17-20% support in surveys from INSA and others conducted in July and August 2026, placing it in a competitive position often tied or leading for the first time ahead of the September 20 state election. This reflects broader national momentum for the party at around 28% and gains in eastern states, alongside local factors such as voter priorities on immigration and security. With Berlin’s proportional representation system and a 147-seat parliament, current vote projections translate to roughly 25-30 seats for the AfD. Trader consensus on the 29-35+ seat ranges aligns with expectations of continued upward movement or overperformance relative to recent averages, while lower bands price in risks from turnout dynamics or shifts among undecided voters in the final weeks.