Bank of England decision in September?
- No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after September 2026 meeting?89¢
- Bank of England decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?11¢
- Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after September 2026 meeting?<1¢
- Bank of England increases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2026 meeting?<1¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 17 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Trader consensus in the Bank of England September decision market assigns an 89% implied probability to no change at the September 17 meeting, with a modest 11% chance of a 25-basis-point hike and negligible odds of cuts. This positioning stems primarily from the MPC’s July 30 decision to hold Bank Rate at 3.75% by a 6-3 vote, citing CPI inflation at 2.6%—above the 2% target—and upside risks from volatile energy prices tied to Middle East conflict. Recent data show inflation easing more than expected yet projected to rise later in 2026, with limited second-round effects so far and a looser labor market supporting restraint. Geopolitical uncertainty continues to tilt risks higher, reinforcing market-implied odds for steady policy over near-term easing or aggressive tightening.