- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil make no change to the target for the Selic rate at the September meeting?11¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 50+ bps at the September meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil increase the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?<1¢
- Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?88¢
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the Selic rate resulting from the September 2026 meeting of the Bank of Brazil’s Monetary Policy Committee (COPOM), relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Brazil, including the statement or release from its September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for September 14-15, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Brazil calendar (https://www.bcb.gov.br/en/about/bcb-calendar?categoria=Monetary%20Policy%20Committee%20(Copom)). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Brazil's September 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns an 88.6% implied probability to a 25 basis point Selic cut by the Central Bank of Brazil’s Copom in September, reflecting the continuation of the gradual easing cycle after the unanimous 25 bps reduction to 14.00% on August 5. July IPCA inflation eased to 4.44% year-over-year—back inside the 1.5–4.5% target band—while economic activity moderates amid a resilient labor market and retreating fuel prices. Inflation expectations remain elevated near 5.0% for 2026, with upside risks noted by policymakers, yet incoming data have improved the near-term outlook enough to support another measured move. Future decisions remain explicitly data-dependent ahead of the September meeting, limiting scope for larger adjustments.