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- Will Rui Costa win the most votes in the 2026 Bahia Senate election?73¢
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Bahia is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election. Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking. If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Rui Costa (PT) leads trader pricing for first place in Bahia's October 2026 Senate race due to consistent polling leads and strong PT coalition backing. Recent Genial/Quaest and Real Time surveys place him ahead of running mate Jaques Wagner, reflecting his record as former governor and Lula's former chief of staff, which bolsters name recognition across the state. The PT ticket benefits from unified party and allied support, including federal resources and endorsements that consolidate left-leaning voters, while opposition candidates like João Roma remain fragmented and far behind. Wagner's lower share stems from his longer Senate tenure but comparatively weaker current momentum. With the first-round vote still months away, shifts in turnout or coalition realignments could narrow the gap, though current evidence points to Rui Costa capturing the top spot under Bahia's open-list system.