- Will Jerônimo Rodrigues win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?52¢
- Will João Roma win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Kleber Rosa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Bruno Soares Reis win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will ACM Neto win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?46¢
- Will José Carlos Aleluia win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?<1¢
- Will Rui Costa win the 2026 Bahia gubernatorial election?<1¢
The Bahia gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
Incumbent Jerônimo Rodrigues (PT) seeks re-election against former Salvador mayor ACM Neto (UNIÃO) in the October 4, 2026 first-round vote for Bahia governor, reviving their 2022 runoff matchup. Recent campaign launches and the August 9 debate have kept the contest tight, with state polls showing the pair within the margin of error amid stable but mixed approval for Rodrigues on education and infrastructure. National shifts, including UNIÃO’s break with the Lula administration and Neto’s alignment with the right-wing bloc, have reshaped alliances without decisively tilting local sentiment. Trader consensus reflects this balance, assigning modest edges that could shift with further debates, fresh polling on voter blocs, or late developments in turnout and endorsements before election day.