Avg. # of ships transiting Bab el-Mandeb Strait end of August?
- Will there be fewer than 25 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?38¢
- Will there be between 25 and 29 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?23¢
- Will there be between 30 and 34 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?20¢
- Will there be between 35 and 39 average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?11¢
- Will there be 40 or more average daily transits of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on August 31?5¢
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for August 31, 2026. Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Ongoing Houthi maritime blockades and attacks tied to regional conflicts have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits suppressed, with daily commodity vessel counts recently averaging near 24 and dipping as low as single digits on volatile days, prompting carriers to maintain Cape of Good Hope reroutes that elevate freight rates and insurance premiums. This backdrop underpins the market's strongest implied probability on sub-25 daily averages (38.3%), followed by the 25-29 bin (22.5%), as aggregated trader positions reflect verified volume data from sources like Kpler rather than pre-conflict baselines of 130-plus vessels. Elevated hull premiums near 0.5% and persistent threat levels continue to weigh on sentiment ahead of end-August resolution.