- Will annual inflation be 2.9% or less in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.0% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.1% in August?2¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.2% in August?10¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.3% in August?29¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.4% in August?42¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.5% in August?17¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.6% in August?4¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.7% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.8% in August?3¢
- Will annual inflation be 3.9% in August?<1¢
- Will annual inflation be 4.0% or more in August?<1¢
This is a market about inflation over the 12-month period ending August 2026, before seasonal adjustment, as reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. This market will resolve to the percentage change in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending in August 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) report. The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for August 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on September 11, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release, which reports inflation over 12-month periods to only one decimal point (e.g., 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Trader consensus on Polymarket for the August US annual inflation rate centers on 3.4% and 3.3% as the leading outcomes, with combined implied probability exceeding 70%. These levels reflect ongoing moderation in headline CPI following recent releases that showed subdued goods prices and easing shelter costs. Market-implied odds incorporate the latest labor market data and energy price stability, which continue to support a disinflation trajectory consistent with Federal Reserve policy objectives. Upcoming CPI details and any revisions to prior months will serve as the immediate catalyst for shifts in these probabilities, while broader Treasury yields and inflation expectations provide additional context for trader positioning.