- Another Iranian diplomat expelled by August 31, 2026?4¢
- Another Iranian diplomat expelled by September 30, 2026?40¢
- Another Iranian diplomat expelled by October 31, 2026?60¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any country expels the Iranian Ambassador stationed in that country as of market creation between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, “expel” refers to a formal action by a country requiring the Iranian Ambassador currently stationed there as of market creation to leave the country, including a declaration of persona non grata. Revocation of the Ambassador’s visa or denial of entry to that country will not alone suffice. An announcement of a qualifying expulsion will suffice for a “Yes” resolution, regardless of whether the Ambassador actually leaves the country. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the relevant country’s government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Recent diplomatic expulsions of Iranian officials, including multiple U.S. actions against UN mission personnel in late 2025 and early 2026 on national security grounds, Argentina's April 2026 declaration of Iran's chargé d'affaires as persona non grata amid IRGC-related disputes, and France's mid-August 2026 announcement of two diplomat expulsions tied to assaults on its own staff, have shaped trader views on further incidents. Ongoing Middle East tensions involving Iranian-backed groups, responses to alleged plots, and bilateral frictions with countries designating entities like the IRGC continue to influence outcomes. Scheduled diplomatic reviews, potential retaliation cycles, and any new verified incidents before resolution dates remain key variables that could shift probabilities.