- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?8¢8%
The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the 96.7% market-implied probability for "No" before 2027. USGS records and global catalogs show these megathrust events average roughly one to three per century, with the most recent in 2011 off Japan; only a handful have occurred since 1900. Recent activity, including the 2025 Kamchatka 8.8 and 2026 Panama 7.7–8.0 sequences, remains well below this threshold despite ongoing subduction-zone monitoring by agencies like the USGS. While seismic gaps exist along high-risk faults such as the Cascadia or Chile margins, current strain accumulation rates and absence of precursors make an imminent M9+ rupture statistically improbable within the remaining timeframe. Unexpected model shifts or foreshock sequences could still alter odds if detected.
Rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.