- 9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?5¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ megathrust events, which occur globally roughly once every 20–50 years based on historical records from subduction zones, underpins the 95.2% market-implied odds against occurrence before 2027. With only months remaining in 2026 and no recent USGS or international monitoring data showing unusual strain accumulation or foreshock sequences capable of triggering such an event, traders see negligible near-term risk. Largest 2026 quakes have reached only 7.8, consistent with typical annual patterns. A realistic shift could arise from an unforeseen rupture in high-probability zones like the Cascadia or Chile subduction interfaces, though current seismic indicators and recurrence intervals make this highly improbable within the narrow window.