- Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?48¢
- Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?37¢
- Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?10¢
- Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?3¢
- Will SpaceX be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢
- Will Tesla be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢
- Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢
- Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢
- Will Broadcom be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?<1¢
The closely matched market-implied odds, with Apple at 48% and NVIDIA at 36.5% leading a crowded field, reflect intense competition among major technology companies for second-highest market capitalization by late 2026. Trader consensus centers on NVIDIA's AI-driven revenue growth from data center demand and large language model training contrasting with Apple's more stable valuation supported by its hardware ecosystem, services recurring revenue, and supply chain resilience. Other contenders like Microsoft and Alphabet trail due to slower recent momentum in core segments. Key upcoming catalysts include fourth-quarter earnings reports, AI model releases, and any regulatory shifts on semiconductor exports that could alter competitive positioning before year-end resolution.
Rules
This market will resolve to the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026, as of market close. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.