- 10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?<1¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The overwhelming trader consensus on “No” at 99.1% for a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stems from long-standing USGS assessments that such events are physically impossible. Earthquake magnitude scales with fault rupture length, and no known fault on Earth is sufficiently extensive to release the required energy; the theoretical minimum would circle much of the planet. The historical record reinforces this, with the largest verified event a 9.5 in Chile in 1960. No new seismic data, model revisions, or monitoring updates in 2025–2026 have altered this framework. While a magnitude miscalculation by global networks or an unforeseen tectonic discovery could theoretically intervene, both remain vanishingly improbable within the brief remaining window.