Trump’s measured praise for María Corina Machado without direct endorsement, combined with U.S. engagement with interim President Delcy Rodríguez, underpins the 94% “No” odds. In early October 2026, Trump described Machado as “an excellent woman” and referenced her Nobel gesture but declined to back her return to Venezuela or any leadership role when pressed at the White House. The administration has prioritized a three-phase transition focused on regional security and energy deals with Rodríguez following Maduro’s January 2026 ouster, including a September meeting and major oil arrangements. Machado, sidelined from U.S.-backed talks, has publicly noted timeline differences and endorsed a Trump critic in U.S. midterms, while polls show her leading Venezuelan preferences ahead of potential 2027 elections. These developments signal a pragmatic U.S. approach favoring stability over explicit backing of Machado for the presidency.
Este mercado se resolverá en «Sí» si Donald Trump respalda públicamente o propone a María Corina Machado como líder del Estado venezolano o presidenta antes de 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como «No». Si Donald Trump anuncia que preferiría a otra persona o respalda a otra persona, este mercado se resolverá inmediatamente en «No». La fuente de resolución de este mercado será información oficial de Donald Trump o de uno de sus representantes, o el consenso de informaciones fiables sobre el respaldo de Trump.
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