- ¿Respaldará Trump a JD Vance como presidente antes de 2027?5¢5 %
President Donald Trump’s recent public refusal to discuss or commit to endorsing Vice President JD Vance for the 2028 Republican nomination has reinforced trader expectations that no early endorsement will occur before 2027. In an October 20 Oval Office exchange, Trump described Vance as talented and capable but stated the two had never discussed the topic, calling it premature and directing focus to the November midterms. Vance has voiced confidence that Trump would eventually back him if he runs, while acknowledging the possibility of a contested primary and the value of allowing candidates to compete independently. Trump has previously labeled Vance his “most likely” heir apparent yet has also highlighted other figures such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, maintaining flexibility ahead of the 2028 cycle. These signals align with the 94.9% implied probability on “No.”
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a "Sí" si Donald Trump respalda públicamente a JD Vance, o anuncia que votará por él, en las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2028 o en las primarias republicanas para dichas elecciones, a más tardar el 31 de diciembre de 2026 a las 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá a "No". Si Donald Trump anuncia que votará por otro candidato o respalda a otro candidato para las elecciones presidenciales de Estados Unidos de 2028 o las primarias republicanas para dichas elecciones, este mercado se resolverá inmediatamente a "No". La fuente de resolución de este mercado será información oficial de Donald Trump o de uno de sus representantes, o el consenso de informaciones fiables sobre el respaldo de Trump.
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