- ¿Invadirá Estados Unidos Cuba en 2026?3¢3 %
Sustained U.S. economic sanctions, including an oil blockade and new targeted measures under executive orders, combined with diplomatic channels that have produced no formal negotiations, have anchored trader expectations against a U.S. invasion of Cuba before year-end. Recent rhetoric from administration officials has emphasized regime change through pressure rather than direct military action, even as Cuba conducts defensive exercises and maintains its political system as a non-negotiable red line. The absence of visible troop movements, operational orders, or escalation signals beyond sanctions in the past month reinforces the market's 96.7% implied probability for no invasion. Late developments such as a major incident, unexpected Cuban involvement in other conflicts, or abrupt policy shifts could still alter the trajectory before December 31.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá como "Sí" si Estados Unidos inicia una ofensiva militar destinada a establecer el control sobre cualquier parte del territorio terrestre de Cuba antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No". A efectos de este mercado, los territorios que Cuba o Estados Unidos controlen de facto en el momento de creación del mercado se considerarán territorio soberano de ese país. La resolución de este mercado se basará en el consenso de fuentes creíbles.
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