- ¿Será mujer la candidata demócrata a la presidencia en 2028?30¢30 %
Traders assign a 70.5% probability that the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee will be a man, driven by market pricing that favors several male governors and senators as stronger general-election contenders after the party's 2024 results. Gavin Newsom leads prediction markets near 17%, followed closely by Jon Ossoff and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, while Kamala Harris tops early national polls yet receives only single-digit market odds amid questions about her viability. Gretchen Whitmer has signaled she is unlikely to run, and Amy Klobuchar has ruled out a bid, narrowing the pool of prominent female options. The consensus reflects trader assessments of name recognition, fundraising networks, and swing-state appeal among leading male figures rather than current survey preferences.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si la persona que gana y acepta la nominación del Partido Demócrata a la presidencia de EE. UU. en 2028 es una mujer. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá con "No". La fuente para resolver este mercado será el consenso de las fuentes oficiales del Partido Demócrata. Cualquier sustitución del candidato demócrata antes del día de las elecciones no cambiará la resolución del mercado.
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