¿Invadirá Rusia un país de la OTAN por...?
Fecha de inicio
2025-05-28
Fecha de fin
2025-12-31
Volumen 24h
$2K
Volumen total
$5.5M
- ¿Invadirá Rusia un país de la OTAN antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?6¢
- ¿Invadirá Rusia un país de la OTAN antes del 30 de septiembre de 2026?<1¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any NATO country between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by NATO member states or Russia as of May 28, 2025, will be considered the sovereign territory of those countries. Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022). The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.