- ¿Entrará María Corina Machado en Venezuela para el 31 de octubre?9¢9 %
- ¿Entrará María Corina Machado en Venezuela para el 31 de diciembre?33¢33 %
María Corina Machado remains in exile in Panama after leaving Venezuela in December 2025, with at least seven documented attempts to return by air and sea blocked since then, including multiple efforts in September 2026 via routes through Aruba and Curaçao that faced cancellations and denied permissions. The interim government under Delcy Rodríguez, installed after the U.S. ouster of Nicolás Maduro in January 2026, controls entry points and has shown reluctance tied to Machado’s strong polling lead and opposition support. Recent opposition alliance reaffirmation of her leadership on October 18 and calls for protests demanding an election date and her return have not altered access barriers, while U.S.-backed transition talks proceed without her direct role. Traders price a low probability of entry by year-end deadlines due to these repeated institutional and diplomatic constraints, with any shift likely hinging on negotiation outcomes or policy changes in the coming months.
Reglas
Si María Corina Machado visita Venezuela entre la creación del mercado y 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET, este mercado se resolverá a "Sí". De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No". A efectos de este mercado, se define "visita" como la entrada física de María Corina Machado en el territorio terrestre de Venezuela. Que María Corina Machado entre o no en el espacio aéreo o el territorio marítimo venezolano durante el periodo de este mercado no influirá en una resolución positiva. La principal fuente para la resolución de este mercado será el consenso de informaciones periodísticas fiables.
Traducción automática. En caso de disputa, prevalece el original.