- ¿Algún modelo de IA alcanzará una puntuación de 1580 en Coding Arena antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?18¢
- Will any AI model reach 1600 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?14¢
- Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?25¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Recent releases have intensified competition in coding arenas like WebDev Arena on arena.ai, where human-preference Elo ratings measure agentic performance on real-world tasks such as full-stack development and debugging. As of early September 2026, Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 Max leads at approximately 1765 Elo, with Qwen3.8-Max-0902 from Alibaba debuting near 1688 on September 2 after targeted post-training on complex coding workflows, though its preliminary status reflects fewer votes and overlapping confidence intervals with Claude Opus 5 variants. Other frontier models from OpenAI, Moonshot, and xAI cluster in the mid-1600s, supported by gains on related benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (where Claude Opus 5 reaches 96%). Traders should watch for additional model updates or agent improvements before year-end, as rapid iteration in large language models continues to shift leaderboard positions.