- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) antes del 26 de octubre de 2026?14¢14 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 26 de octubre y el 1 de noviembre de 2026?12¢12 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 2 y el 8 de noviembre de 2026?13¢13 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 9 y el 15 de noviembre de 2026?12¢12 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 16 y el 22 de noviembre de 2026?14¢14 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 23 y el 29 de noviembre de 2026?7¢7 %
- ¿Se publicará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 30 de noviembre y el 6 de diciembre de 2026?4¢4 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 7 y el 13 de diciembre de 2026?8¢8 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 14 y el 20 de diciembre de 2026?3¢3 %
- ¿Se lanzará el próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) entre el 21 y el 27 de diciembre de 2026?7¢7 %
- ¿No habrá ningún lanzamiento del próximo modelo GPT Terra (5.7+) antes del 27 de diciembre de 2026?28¢28 %
The closely matched probabilities across late November through December 2026 reflect trader uncertainty around OpenAI’s irregular release cadence for the next GPT-5.7+ Terra tier model, following the GPT-5.6 family’s July general availability and the subsequent GPT-6 Astra, Sol, and Luna launches in September. Recent efficiency gains and pricing cuts for existing Terra variants, alongside ongoing safety and regulatory scrutiny seen in prior rollouts, have slowed iteration timelines while competitors advance comparable balanced models. Key swing factors include potential announcements at upcoming developer events, supply-chain or inference optimizations, and any government review requirements that could push resolution past year-end. Market-implied odds treat these as aggregated, capital-backed sentiment rather than guarantees amid shifting AI capability benchmarks and platform dynamics.
Reglas
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's next GPT Terra model (5.7+) is made available to the general public. A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "GPT" and "Terra" and be designated as version 5.7 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.7 or higher named in the same manner as GPT-5.6 Terra would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as GPT-6 Terra or an Astra-branded release meeting these criteria, while models whose name does not include "Terra" or which retain a version designation below 5.7, such as GPT-5.6 Terra, GPT-5.6 Sol, or GPT-5.6 Luna, will not qualify. Fine-tunes, modes, or restricted-access variants of an existing version, such as GPT-5.6-Cyber or GPT-5.6 Sol Ultrafast, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.