- ¿Irá Trump al espacio en 2026?2¢2 %
No official plans, announcements, or preparations exist for President Trump to participate in any crewed spaceflight during 2026, driving the 98.2% implied probability that the outcome will not occur. Recent administration actions emphasize commercial launch growth, Artemis program milestones such as Artemis II and IV timelines, and regulatory streamlining via FAA and NASA initiatives, with focus remaining on policy leadership and contractor support rather than personal astronaut participation. At age 80, structural barriers including medical screening, mission training demands, and national security protocols further reduce feasibility absent extraordinary developments. Late-breaking shifts could still arise from a ceremonial suborbital flight on a commercial vehicle or rapid policy pivot tied to diplomatic or electoral events within the resolution window.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si Donald Trump se encuentra físicamente a bordo de cualquier aeronave o nave espacial que alcance o cruce el límite espacial de EE. UU. para 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá con "No". El límite espacial de EE. UU. se define como 50 millas por encima del nivel medio del mar. Que Donald Trump cruce o no la línea de Karaman, reconocida internacionalmente, no afectará a la resolución de este mercado. La principal fuente para la resolución de este mercado será el consenso de informaciones periodísticas fiables.
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