- ¿Poilievre dejará de ser líder de los Conservadores antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026?12¢12 %
Pierre Poilievre retained his position as Conservative Party of Canada leader with an 87.4% vote in the January 2026 leadership review following the party's 2025 federal election loss to Mark Carney's Liberals. He subsequently won a by-election in Battle River—Crowfoot and continues to serve as the primary opposition voice on issues including affordability, immigration, trade relations with the United States, and national unity ahead of Alberta's referendum. While internal caucus frustration and unfavorable polling have surfaced in recent months, party sources indicate no organized effort or viable alternative to force a change. Traders assign a 92% probability that he remains in place through December 2026, reflecting the absence of scheduled leadership mechanisms or acute pressure that would alter his status before year-end.
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pierre Poilievre ceases to be Leader of the Conservative Party of Canada for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pierre Poilievre's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative Party of Canada; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.