- ¿Nueva pandemia en 2026?2¢2 %
As of early November 2026, official surveillance from the World Health Organization and Centers for Disease Control and Prevention reports no novel pathogen exhibiting sustained human-to-human transmission or the epidemiological thresholds for pandemic status, with seasonal respiratory viruses following typical patterns. This absence of emerging threats, supported by robust global monitoring networks and rapid genomic sequencing, drives the market-implied 98% probability of no new pandemic. Historical baselines show such events require specific conditions like high transmissibility and immune escape that remain unmet. Realistic scenarios that could still alter the outcome include an undetected avian influenza spillover achieving efficient spread or a coronavirus variant evading current immunity before year-end monitoring closes.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si la Organización Mundial de la Salud (OMS) declara pandemia cualquier enfermedad entre 1 de enero de 2026 y 31 de diciembre de 2026 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No". La fuente de resolución serán los anuncios oficiales de la Organización Mundial de la Salud.
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