- ¿Desastre natural en 2026?5¢5 %
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 91% implied probability to “No” for a qualifying natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of any Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption, 8.5+ magnitude earthquake, or 10-kiloton+ meteor strike through mid-October. A strengthening El Niño, confirmed by NOAA and WMO monitoring, has increased wind shear and suppressed Atlantic tropical cyclone activity, consistent with historical patterns that lower major landfall odds during such phases. USGS records show peak magnitudes well below 8.5 this year, while Smithsonian data indicate all documented eruptions remain at VEI ≤4. NASA fireball monitoring has logged no qualifying bolides. With roughly 10 weeks remaining and typical seasonal frequencies for these extremes, new official forecasts from the National Hurricane Center and ongoing geophysical surveillance represent the main near-term variables that could alter the current market-implied odds.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si se cumple cualquiera de las siguientes condiciones durante 2026 ET: - Un huracán de categoría 5 toca tierra en EE. UU. - Impacta un meteorito de gran tamaño (10 kt o más) - Entra en erupción un volcán importante (VEI ≥6) - Se produce un terremoto de magnitud 8,5 o superior De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá con "No". Si sigue pendiente información necesaria procedente de las fuentes especificadas, el mercado podrá permanecer abierto hasta 28 de febrero de 2027, 23:59 ET. Las reglas completas de este mercado se pueden consultar aquí: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traducción automática. En caso de disputa, prevalece el original.