- ¿Estará Jerome Powell en la cárcel antes de 2027?1¢1 %
The overwhelming 97.8% market-implied probability that Jerome Powell will not be jailed before 2027 reflects the complete absence of any criminal indictments, regulatory enforcement actions, or credible investigations targeting the Federal Reserve Chair. As a Senate-confirmed public official overseeing monetary policy, Powell faces no documented legal exposure that would meet the high evidentiary bar for incarceration, consistent with historical precedent for Fed leadership. Traders price this outcome as near-certain given the institutional safeguards and lack of recent developments suggesting otherwise. Tail-risk scenarios remain limited to extreme, low-probability events such as politically motivated charges in a highly polarized environment or unforeseen personal misconduct emerging in the final months of his term, though neither has materialized in official filings or credible reporting.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá como "Sí" si Jerome Powell pasa algún tiempo en una cárcel o prisión federal, estatal o local de EE. UU. entre la creación del mercado y 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No". La fuente principal para resolver este mercado será la información oficial del Gobierno de EE. UU.; no obstante, también podrá utilizarse el consenso de informaciones de fuentes fiables.
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