- ¿Se disolverá el Parlamento japonés en 2026?9¢9 %
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party-led coalition secured a fresh mandate in the February 2026 Lower House election following the January dissolution, leaving the current four-year term with more than three years remaining as of mid-October. With a working majority intact and no no-confidence motion pending, the ruling bloc faces little institutional pressure to seek another early vote before year-end. Recent cabinet turbulence, including the agriculture minister’s resignation, has trimmed approval ratings to the low-to-mid 50s but not triggered the kind of acute crisis that historically prompts dissolution. Traders therefore assign overwhelming probability against a 2026 dissolution, viewing it as inconsistent with standard Japanese parliamentary practice unless unforeseen events such as coalition fracture or a sharp economic downturn materialize in the final weeks of the year.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si se disuelve la Cámara de Representantes de Japón actualmente en funciones antes del 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No". La fuente principal para resolver este mercado será la información oficial del Gobierno de Japón; no obstante, también se tendrá en cuenta el consenso de las informaciones de fuentes fiables.
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