- ¿Tendrá Irán un arma nuclear antes de 2027?3¢3 %
Recent US and Israeli strikes in 2025 and early 2026 damaged or destroyed Iran's key uranium enrichment facilities at Natanz, Fordow, and Isfahan, with IAEA reporting no visible reconstruction efforts at those sites through late October 2026. Inspectors have lacked access since June 2025, leaving the status of roughly 440 kilograms of 60% enriched uranium unverified amid ongoing diplomatic efforts and an IAEA referral to the UN Security Council. These developments, combined with Iran's suspension of safeguards cooperation and internal debates over NPT obligations, underpin trader consensus that weaponization timelines remain extended well beyond 2026. Remaining risks include undetected activity at undeclared locations or accelerated post-conflict decisions to enrich existing stocks further.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si fuentes fiables de organismos nucleares internacionales, el propio Gobierno de Irán o medios de comunicación globales fiables confirman oficialmente que Irán posee un arma nuclear a más tardar el 31 de diciembre de 2026, 23:59 ET. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá como "No".
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