- ¿Será la temperatura máxima en Londres de 14°C o menos el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿Será la temperatura más alta en Londres de 15°C el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿La temperatura máxima en Londres será de 16°C el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿La temperatura máxima en Londres será de 17°C el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿Será la temperatura máxima en Londres de 18°C el 14 de octubre?9¢
- ¿La temperatura más alta en Londres será de 19°C el 14 de octubre?64¢
- ¿Será la temperatura más alta en Londres de 20°C el 14 de octubre?23¢
- ¿Será la temperatura más alta en Londres de 21°C el 14 de octubre?2¢
- ¿Será la temperatura máxima en Londres de 22°C el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿La temperatura más alta en Londres será de 23°C el 14 de octubre?<1¢
- ¿Será la temperatura máxima en Londres de 24°C o más el 14 de octubre?<1¢
Forecasts from the Met Office and supporting models position 19°C as the most likely daily maximum for London today, with afternoon peaks under sunny intervals and light southwesterly winds supporting the 59% implied probability. Consensus across official guidance and ensemble runs shows temperatures climbing from a cool morning start near 10–12°C to 18–19°C by early afternoon, with limited cloud cover and negligible rain risk keeping readings from exceeding 20°C in most scenarios. This mild pattern aligns with broader seasonal trends of above-average October warmth in southeast England, though slight model spread leaves room for a 20°C outlier at 31% odds. Resolution hinges on official recorded highs, with final confirmation expected from UK monitoring networks by evening.
Reglas
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Oct '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=eglc If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. In the case that the Resolution Source publishes data, sufficient to settle a Market, that is clearly erroneous and the result of technical or operational error, or of unauthorized interference with the Resolution Source or its data, the Market may remain open for a period of up to seven (7) calendar days (ET) from the time of the original release, in anticipation of a correction by the Resolution Source. If the Resolution Source publishes a corrected value within that period, that value will be eligible for resolution. If no corrected value is published within that period, Polymarket will issue a Clarification to determine whether the originally published value may be eligible for resolution, or whether other action is required to preserve the orderly functioning of the Market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.