- ¿Aumento de la tasa de la Fed para la reunión de septiembre de 2026?100¢100 %
- ¿Subida de la tasa de la Fed para la reunión de octubre de 2026?100¢100 %
- ¿Subida de la tasa de la Fed para la reunión de julio de 2026?0¢0 %
- ¿Subida de la tasa de la Fed para la reunión de abril de 2026?0¢0 %
- ¿Subida de la tasa de la Fed para la reunión de junio de 2026?0¢0 %
The Federal Reserve's unanimous September 16, 2026 decision to raise the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75%-4%—its first hike since 2023—serves as the dominant driver of current trader positioning on rate paths. Officials' updated dot plot showed 16 of 18 participants expecting at least one additional quarter-point increase by December, citing elevated inflation (with 2026 PCE projections revised higher to 3.7% headline) amid resilient growth, stable unemployment, and upward pressure from oil prices tied to geopolitical tensions. This follows five prior holds and reflects a hawkish shift under Chair Kevin Warsh, though markets will closely monitor October 27-28 and December 8-9 meetings for confirmation or data-driven revisions to the implied tightening pace.
Reglas
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.