- ¿Se imputará a Dan J. Sullivan antes de 31 de enero?8¢8 %
The Justice Department’s accelerated criminal probe into allegations that Democratic operatives recruited Daniel J. Sullivan to appear on Alaska’s Senate ballot centers on potential voter confusion and conspiracy claims tied to the 2026 race against incumbent Sen. Dan Sullivan and Democratic nominee Mary Peltola. Multiple grand jury subpoenas and records demands have issued since late October following public reporting on campaign involvement, with federal prosecutors also seeking to preserve ballots for possible review. No charges have been filed against any party, including the candidate himself, who has denied any deceptive intent. Given the procedural timelines for indictments in election-related matters, the absence of imminent action against Sullivan, and the investigation’s primary focus on recruitment efforts, trader consensus assigns an 84.5% probability that he will not face charges by January 31.
Reglas
Este mercado se resolverá a favor de "Sí" si, entre la creación del mercado y 31 de enero de 2027, 23:59 ET, alguna jurisdicción federal o estatal de Estados Unidos presenta formalmente cargos o anuncia de otro modo una acusación penal contra Daniel J. Sullivan, candidato al Senado por Alaska. De lo contrario, este mercado se resolverá con "No". A efectos de este mercado, el Distrito de Columbia y cualquier condado, municipio u otra subdivisión de un Estado se incluirán en la definición de Estado. La fuente principal para resolver este mercado será la información oficial de fuentes gubernamentales de Estados Unidos; no obstante, también se tendrá en cuenta un amplio consenso de informaciones fiables.
Traducción automática. En caso de disputa, prevalece el original.