- Wird Apple das iPhone 18 im Jahr 2026 herausbringen?>99¢
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor. In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Apple’s established annual release cadence, reinforced by the company’s confirmed September 9, 2026 keynote and supply-chain reports confirming iPhone 18 Pro and foldable model availability, drives the 99.4% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release this year. Traders view the consistent September timing, prior-year patterns with iPhone 17 models, and ongoing production signals as near-certain indicators of at least flagship variants reaching market before year-end. While the standard iPhone 18 may shift to spring 2027 under a split-launch approach, the broader series timeline remains on track. Potential disruptors such as last-minute technical delays, component shortages, or regulatory hurdles exist but appear low-probability given the event’s proximity and Apple’s historical execution.