- Werden die Demokraten das Senatsrennen in Texas 2026 gewinnen?50¢
- Werden die Republikaner das Senatsrennen in Texas 2026 gewinnen?50¢
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date. Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Recent polls show the Texas U.S. Senate race between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton as a statistical tie or narrow Talarico edge, driving trader consensus near even odds. Paxton's primary victory over incumbent John Cornyn with Trump backing consolidated Republican support but highlighted his lower favorability tied to prior legal and ethics matters, while Talarico's primary win and heavy ad spending on affordability have strengthened his position among independents, Hispanics, and urban voters. Regional divides persist, with Paxton leading rural areas on border security and Talarico competitive in metros. Upcoming developments including further ad buys, debates, and turnout efforts on economic and security issues could shift margins ahead of the November 3 general election.