- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win less than 16% of all valid votes?5¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 16% and 18% of all valid votes?11¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win between 18% and 20% of all valid votes?38¢
- Will Sweden Democrats (SD) win at least 20% of all valid votes?44¢
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Sweden Democrats (SD) in the specified election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. This market will resolve solely based on the percentage of valid votes won by the specified party, defined as the number of valid votes won by the specified party divided by the total number of valid votes in the specified election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the Swedish Election Authority attributes them to the aforementioned party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties or electoral designations will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If the specified party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, the valid vote percentage of the successor party will count towards resolution. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).
Recent polling shows Sweden Democrats support fluctuating near 20% in the final stretch before the September 13 parliamentary election, with the latest Novus survey placing the party at 20.7% amid a sharp narrowing of the overall bloc contest. The opposition's lead over the Tidö government parties has collapsed to 2.6 points, inside the margin of error, after earlier double-digit gaps, driven by Social Democrat declines and modest Liberal gains that bolster the right-leaning side. This volatility, combined with ongoing campaign focus on immigration, crime, and economic pressures, sustains trader uncertainty between the 20%+ and 18-20% brackets. Late shifts in turnout or voter flows among swing blocs could still separate the outcomes before election day.