- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on September 2?3¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C or below on September 2?<1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on September 2?1¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on September 2?95¢
- Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on September 2?<1¢
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 2 Sep '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zspd If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source. In the event which there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Persistent rain and extensive cloud cover over Shanghai on September 2 are holding overnight temperatures near 25°C, aligning with the market's 92% implied probability for that low. Subtropical monsoon conditions, including high humidity above 80% and light northeast winds, limit radiative cooling under the stable airmass, consistent with multiple model runs showing a narrow diurnal range around 25–29°C. Historical early-September baselines for the region support similar mild minima during active precipitation periods. A rapid clearance of clouds before dawn could allow slightly more cooling toward 24°C, though current observations and short-term guidance indicate this remains unlikely before the daily minimum is recorded.