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- Wird SpaceX 2026 die höchste Marktkapitalisierung bei einem Börsengang haben?65¢
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This market will resolve to the company that achieves the highest market capitalization in U.S. dollars based on the official closing price on its first trading day in 2026. This market will resolve to a company that completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If two or more companies have exactly equal highest closing market capitalizations, this market will resolve to the company whose listed name comes first alphabetically. Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used. In case the respective company's primary exchange’s official listing page does not report in U.S. dollars, it will be converted to U.S. dollars using the U.S. Federal Reserve Board’s H.10 foreign exchange reference rate for the relevant currency pair on the company’s first trading day (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h10/). If no such rate is available for the relevant trading day, the most recent previously published rate will be used. If the relevant currency is not listed, another credible exchange rate source will be used. A listed company may resolve to "No" as soon as it becomes unable to complete an IPO, including due to acquisition, merger, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded. In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on the respective companies’ first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
SpaceX’s completed June 2026 IPO at a $1.77 trillion valuation, raising a record $75 billion-plus, anchors the 64.5% implied probability as the largest 2026 debut by market cap. Its Starlink-driven revenue and scale established a high benchmark, while Anthropic’s confidential S-1 filing and October target of roughly $2 trillion—supported by a $65 billion annualized revenue run rate and $965 billion private valuation—sustain the 36.2% odds for a potential overtake. xAI’s 25.5% reflects its earlier absorption into SpaceX rather than a standalone listing. Traders are pricing the outcome around these confirmed valuations and timelines, with Anthropic’s filing and revenue trajectory as the key near-term catalysts.