- Wird Indiens jährliche Inflation 2026 zwischen 1,50 % und 2,24 % liegen?<1¢
- Wird die jährliche Inflation Indiens im Jahr 2026 zwischen 3,75 % und 4,49 % liegen?7¢
- Wird die jährliche Inflation Indiens im Jahr 2026 mindestens 4,50 % betragen?90¢
- Wird Indiens jährliche Inflation 2026 unter 0,75 % liegen?2¢
- Wird Indiens jährliche Inflation 2026 zwischen 2,25 % und 2,99 % liegen?<1¢
- Wird die jährliche Inflationsrate Indiens im Jahr 2026 zwischen 0,75 % und 1,49 % liegen?<1¢
- Wird Indiens jährliche Inflation 2026 zwischen 3,00 % und 3,74 % liegen?<1¢
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in India over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Indian Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month. The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month. The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
India's CPI inflation trajectory for 2026-27 remains anchored around the 5% level amid supply-side pressures. Recent prints show headline CPI rising to 4.4% in June and 4.45% in July 2026—the first readings above the RBI's 4% target in over a year—driven by elevated food prices (5.52% in July) and transport costs following fuel price adjustments. The RBI projects 5.0% average inflation for FY 2026-27, with quarterly peaks near 5.9% in Q3 before moderation, citing food, fuel, and input cost risks alongside an uneven monsoon and lingering geopolitical effects on energy prices. Core inflation (excluding food and fuel) stays contained near 3.9-4.3%, limiting broad-based pass-through. Market-implied odds heavily favor outcomes above 4.5% as traders price in these persistent supply factors and the RBI's neutral policy stance at the 5.25% repo rate, while core moderation and contained expectations cap downside scenarios.