- Wird die US-Arbeitslosenquote im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,0 % erreichen?9¢
- Wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 mindestens 5,5 % erreichen?5¢
- Wird die US-Arbeitslosigkeit im Jahr 2026 mindestens 6,0 % erreichen?6¢
- Wird die Arbeitslosigkeit in den USA im Jahr 2026 mindestens 7,0 % erreichen?5¢
- Wird die US-Arbeitslosigkeit im Jahr 2026 mindestens 10,0 % erreichen?4¢
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month. Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The U.S. unemployment rate held steady at 4.1 percent in August 2026, with nonfarm payrolls rising 162,000, according to the latest Bureau of Labor Statistics release. Recent stability around 4.1–4.3 percent reflects a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium, where moderating job growth has been offset by sharply reduced labor-force expansion from lower net immigration and demographic shifts. Wage gains remain moderate near 3 percent year-over-year, consistent with the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target. Key near-term catalysts include the September FOMC meeting, the next Employment Situation report on October 2, and upcoming CPI and PCE prints that could influence monetary policy expectations and hiring plans through year-end.